← Back to fixtures

Nice vs Le Havre

Fri 15 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nice win: 40.9%

Draw: 28.0%

Le Havre win: 31.1%

Predicted: Nice

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.65

More corners: Nice (56.0% home / 44.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nice

Yes

Probability Nice wins or draws: 68.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Nice Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 31%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nice win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.